Kathmandu: The Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) organized a public lecture titled “Rising Power Competition: Indian and Chinese Commercial Landscapes in the Indo-Pacific” at the NIICE Seminar Hall in Hattiban, Lalitpur, on October 27.
The lecture was delivered by Daniel Loebell, a PhD candidate in Political Science at Northwestern University, USA, who discussed how strategic and economic rivalry between India and China is reshaping the Indo-Pacific and influencing smaller South Asian states such as Nepal and Malaysia.
In his opening remarks, Bibek Dhoj Thapa, Program Coordinator at NIICE, explained the institute’s focus on the Indo-Pacific framework, referencing research by Dr. Pramod Jaiswal, NIICE Research Director. He argued that the Indo-Pacific extends beyond coastal and island nations, impacting Himalayan states as well. Thapa described Nepal as a “virtual maritime country” due to its open border with India and membership in BIMSTEC, which connects it to the Indian Ocean.
Further, the competition between India and China in the waters of Indo-Pacific showed spillover effects of competition between the two in the Himalayan region, where Nepal is situated as well. He observed that as India strengthens its maritime partnerships, particularly with the United States, China has adopted a more assertive posture along their shared Himalayan border. “Tensions in the Indo-Pacific waters are mirrored in the Himalayas,” he noted, emphasizing that the Himalayan region and the Indian Ocean are interlinked arenas of great-power competition.
Reflecting on his fieldwork in Nepal, Loebell shared insights from over 40 semi-structured interviews with individuals from government, academia, and the private sector. His preliminary findings indicate that India’s commercial and institutional influence in Nepal remains more pervasive than China’s, especially in trade, investment, and nonprofit exchanges. He noted that such patterns demonstrate how small states navigate complex economic pressures from multiple regional powers.
He further discussed how Nepal’s position between India and China allows it to serve as a strategic observation point for scholars studying the balance of power in South Asia. He described his research as “exploratory fieldwork on how small states hedge between large powers to protect their sovereignty while engaging economically.”
Loebell chose Nepal and Malaysia for his research to explore how both countries, despite their significant economic differences, share historical and geopolitical connections with both China and India before the British Colonial era in the region. He highlights that Nepal’s position between northern India and Tibet fostered centuries of cultural, trade, and migratory interactions, further shaped by the British colonial era and restrictions under the Rana regime that pushed Nepalis abroad, including to Malaysia.
Malaysia, on the other hand, presented an older layer of transregional engagement, tracing back nearly 900 years to the Kedah city-state, which was linked to China through the Chola Empire of Tamil Nadu. Historical trade networks, such as the “Group of 500” merchants managing spice and raw material exchanges across the Indian Ocean to China, demonstrate early globalization patterns.
Loebell also acknowledged the support of the Northwestern Buffett Institute for International Studies for enabling his South Asia fieldwork, including lectures in Sri Lanka, India, and Nepal. He concluded by stressing the need for stronger academic collaboration between Nepali and international institutions to better understand the region’s shifting political economy.
The event was attended by around 20 participants, including diplomats, researchers, academics, and students from various universities and think tanks. The session concluded with an interactive Q&A on Nepal’s and Malaysia’s strategic roles within the Indo-Pacific context.
